Syria Talks Aim to Build on Momentum of Iran Deal
Within 24 hours of an interim deal aimed at reining in Iran’s nuclear program, world powers raised hopes Monday for the first face-to-face talks to end the Syrian civil war as the United Nations called the warring parties to the table.
But huge gaps remain. The opposition remains vague on whether it will even attend the Geneva conference called for Jan. 22, and both sides hold fundamentally different visions on the very basics, particularly the future role of President Bashar Assad.
Nevertheless, Monday’s announcement of a date for the talks after months of delay produced palpable hope that the precedent of successful nuclear negotiations with Iran might open new diplomatic channels that could help broker an end to the nearly 3-year-old civil war in Syria that has killed more than 100,000 people.
The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers was announced in Geneva on Sunday. Success in negotiations on a final accord could pave the way for normalization of ties between Iran and the West, reshaping the Mideast political map.
As Assad’s staunchest ally, Iran has given him significant financial support and is believed to have sent military advisers, trained pro-government militiamen and directed one of its proxies, Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim Hezbollah, to fight alongside Assad’s troops.
U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky played down the possibility that the negotiations with Iran played a direct role in the movement on Syria, which followed a meeting in Geneva of senior diplomats from the U.S., Russia and the U.N.
The two tracks “are very separate, both tracks have been going on in different formats, in different locations,” he told reporters. “So I would simply say that it was a good weekend for diplomacy.”
Still, a senior member in the main, Western-backed Syrian opposition coalition expressed hope the nuclear deal would transform Iran into a “positive regional player,” relinquishing its support for Assad.
“We hope the Iranian nuclear deal will provide impetus for a Syria deal,” Abdelbaset Sieda of the Syrian National Coalition told The Associated Press. “The Iranian government must cut relations with the regime and leave the choice to the Syrian people.”
A break between Iran and Assad is unlikely in the short term given the foothold the alliance gives Tehran in the Arab world. Still, a thaw between Iran and the U.S. — which backs the opposition coalition — could prompt Tehran to encourage Assad to make concessions, at least enough to keep talks going.
“If the Iran talks had not worked or if the Iranian deal had not come about yesterday, I think it might have been more hard-going today,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center. “In terms of the diplomatic atmosphere, there’s certainly a feeling of some impetus.”
The conference aims to work out a roadmap for Syria adopted by the U.S., Russia and other major powers in June 2012 — including creating a transitional government leading to the holding of elections.
Enormous challenges lie ahead. Even participation by both sides is by no means guaranteed.
Under pressure from the U.S., the Syrian National Coalition has dropped conditions that Assad step down before any talks and has eased demands for guarantees ahead of time that he will not be part of any transitional government — demands that the Syrian government has roundly rejected.